Leaf peepers

I've noticed that there are a lot of trees dropping leaves in the past week or so because of the drought (especially poplars and maples). I wonder what this is going to do to this year's leaf watching season. If it keeps up, there may not be any leaves left by fall.

Here's the fall foliage forecast from Western North Carolina University: Western North Carolina leaf color could be spectacular -- or not.

Here are a few excerpts:

A long spell of dry weather during the spring and summer could provide some of the most brilliant colors seen in several years for leaf-lookers headed to the mountains of western North Carolina this autumn.

The key word is “could,” said Katherine Mathews, Western Carolina University’s fearless fall foliage forecaster and an assistant professor of biology specializing in plant systematics. Typically, drier weather during the spring and early summer results in a colorful fall leaf season beginning in October, said Mathews.

But below-freezing temperatures in early April – with a severe frost that damaged tender, young vegetation across the mountains – make this year’s fall color prediction trickier than ever, said Mathews.

Trees that could have been damaged:

Several nights of hard freeze around Easter weekend killed the new leaves and flower buds on early-emerging hardwood tree species, including the tulip poplars and fruit trees such as apples and pears. The later-emerging species such as oaks were not adversely affected, but the frost delayed the ‘greening up’ of the mountains overall. It’s hard to predict how the response of our deciduous trees will play out this fall.

The overall prediction:

The killing freeze was preceded by below-average rainfall in March and followed by severe drought in April and May, which is the prime growing season in WNC, Mathews said. “History has shown that fall leaf color is best in years with spring or early summer drought, when plant growth is stunted by a lack of sufficient water,” she said. “Depending upon the impact of the late frost on mountain foliage, we may see spectacular color throughout the mountains this fall.”

If temperatures in September and October cooperate and cool down, we should expect to see some brilliant fall colors this year, Mathews said.

That is, if they don't turn brown and die first.

In case there is a leaf season this year, here are peak dates:

• October 5-15: Highest elevations north of Asheville above 5,000 feet show the most color, especially at Mount Mitchell, Craggy Gardens and Grandfather Mountain.
• October 13-22: Color will increase in elevations greater than 4,000 feet, including the Mount Pisgah and Cold Mountain area, southwest of Asheville on the Blue Ridge Parkway including the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
• October 19-28: Many of the surrounding mountains around Asheville should show plenty of color this week, especially in the 3,000-4,000 foot elevation range. Take the Parkway north or south from Asheville in the Pisgah National Forest.
• October 24-November 3: The city of Asheville (2,000 foot elevation) and Biltmore Estate shows the brightest colors this week, along with areas around Hendersonville and Brevard. This would be the perfect week for a waterfall hike in Dupont State Forest.
• October 29-November 8: The color show will conclude in the Chimney Rock area (elevation of 1,300 feet). Ride to the top of Chimney Rock or take a boat tour on Lake Lure to enjoy the colors.

The color show begins in the higher elevations of the northwestern sections of North Carolina, typically in early October, and progress southward and down slopes through mid-October and early November. Yellow birches, red sourwoods, red and yellow maples, yellow pin cherries and yellow poplars will be the first colors to show. Yellows, though, may not be as brilliant, according to a forecaster, because of leaf browning in tulip poplars. They will be followed by the yellow and red of oaks and sweet gums, yellow of hickories, yellow and brown of beeches, and a variety of other color shades in the vines, shrubs and smaller trees beneath the forest canopy. Peak fall color should arrive five to 10 days after the first frost at any particular location, according to the forecaster.